Election Polls Diverge: With less than 24 hours before polling day, very different results Election Polls are political junkies scratching their heads. We have many new data to consider, but the picture is simply this: If you think the national survey results released yesterday by the Gallup Organization, the forerunner of all the pollsters who was able to preferences of voters in the midterm elections since 1950, Republicans are poised to win a victory of almost unprecedented, winning a large majority in the House and possibly take control of the Senate. If you think the total of all other Election Polls - national and state level and district - Republicans probably get a small majority in the House, but below the Senate.
National Vote
The national Election Polls have continued to diverge significantly over the weekend, particularly in terms of results on the so-called "generic" which raises questions without giving their specific names, if voters intend to support the candidate Republican or Democrat Congress in their district. The results published this weekend will benefit the Republican by four points (49% to 45%) on the ABC News poll / Washington Post Tsunami Special Republican by 15 points (55% to 40%) provided by the Gallup venerable.
Our current estimates generic House vote shows Republicans trend with a lead of 7.3 points (49.9% to 42.5%), virtually the same margin as a simple average. To be clear, even a lead of 4-5 points that could produce a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the question here is mainly on the size of this victory. But the average 7-point number can not be the most accurate in this case, because the wide spread can not be explained by a simple random error.
Striking as it is, this discrepancy has a previous final, the final round of voting results generic products just before the 2006 election showed a similar gap with Democratic son who is 4 to 20 points. Democrats won the national vote of both parties in Congress about seven points, so that the narrow Democrat turned out to be closer to the truth in a year where the Democrats enjoy a substantial advantage enthusiasm.
In other words, we know that some of these estimates of the national vote are wrong - the question is, what? The spread in the national results resists easy explanation. For example, as the table shows, the dispersion of results among likely voters as measured by Election Polls of the most recently published is as wide as the spread among all registered voters - a net difference of 11 points either way .
Moreover, this gap is as wide among pollsters that voters in the sample and maintenance on both fixed and mobile phones: two Gallup and ABC News / Washington Post survey, for example, cellular telephone interview.
The fact that Gallup has produced what is arguably the outlier poll final is amazing. Gallup has been asking the generic question vote for the national vote preference measure with considerable accuracy since 1950. "Only once in 60 years," as noted in the Weekly Standard cost Jay, "was the generic vote Gallup underestimated Democratic strength by significant amounts - from 2% in 2006. On average, it slightly overestimates the Democrats, 0.7%. "
And if Gallup is right, it implies an almost unprecedented Republican sweep on Tuesday. As Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said by e-mail, "Republicans have never had the shadow of a popular vote margin of 15 points over the last 80 years." Their greatest national margin in this period was "7 points in 1946, followed by a 6 point margin in 1994." A majority of 15 points this year, he adds, "would likely result in a gain of nearly 80 seats between 250 and 260 seats in GOP the new house, more than any Congress since the 1920s.
U. S. House
How the national Election Polls and they measure the "generic" vote in Congress? We have now established Election Polls in 119 districts, including almost all competitive. While the vote in the House district has not the depth of statewide Election Polls, and can sometimes produce erroneous results in the various districts, our previous compilations in 2006 and 2008 have produced largely unbiased estimates biased the final number of seats.
Currently, the probabilities generated by our model show House Republicans leading in enough marginal seats to bring their total to 213 seats to 194 for the Democrats with 28 seats still in our toss-up category. From this hour, if we attribute the toss-up based on the candidate of our model considers most likely to win in each district (regardless of the margin), we would project to 226 seats and the Republicans 209 seats for the Democrats - which represents a net gain of 48 seats for Republicans.
That margin, if accurate, is much more compatible with a Republican advantage 5 to 6 points on the national gazette of generic drugs that tsunami forecasting double-digit by Gallup and Fox News Election Polls.
Senate
If Gallup national margin of 15 points are accurate, it would probably mean a Republican sweep of the Senate. To do this, Republicans would need to sweep the three states currently considered toss-up - Washington, Colorado and Illinois - and overcome the small but real democratic Election Polls conducted in both West Virginia or California. If cumulative voting statewide is accurate and impartial, it is a very unlikely outcome. If the result is similar to what Gallup found at the national level, however, a Republican takeover of the Senate remains a real possibility.
Washington is crucial to Republican hopes for winning control of the Senate, and the final round of Election Polls there show a tight head held by incumbent Democrat Patty Murray.
Throughout the fall campaign, Murray has generally performed better on surveys that use live interviewers than those who call an automated voice recorded. The latest Election Polls are no exception. The latest Election Polls interviewed live by the University or Washington and Marist / McClatchy give slight advantages par Murray (4 to 1 percentage point, respectively), while the final vote Democratic pollster automatic political polls (PPP) has published overnight Rossi gives two-point lead. An online survey conducted by YouGov / Polimetrix using a sample drawn from a panel of respondents recruited to complete online surveys Murray gives an advantage of three points.
Our trend estimate, which combines all the Election Polls available in lead emissions from Murray to less than half a percentage point (48.5% to 48.1%), our closest margin in the Senate of this nation hour.
In Colorado, three new Election Polls released over the weekend leaving our estimate showing the race still very close. Marist / McClatchy Republican Ken Buck gives a four-point lead (49% to 45%) over Sen. Michael Bennett, the final survey PPP Buck gives a margin of one point (49% to 48%) and YouGov / Internet survey Polimetrix flips the margin in favor of Bennett (49% to 48%). Our estimate of the trend of an hour gives Buck a one-point advantage (47.6% to 46.7), but the margin is well within range of toss-up.
The weekend produced just two new surveys in Illinois, a PPP poll showing Republican Mark Kirk leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by four points (46% to 42%), and a YouGov / Polimetrix online poll showing three Giannoulias (47% to 44%). Of the eight opinion Election Polls published in Illinois since mid-October, all gave Kirk led par, except the YouGov survey and an internal survey conducted by the Giannoulias campaign. Our estimate of the trend of Illinois now advance Kirk 1.4 points (43.7% to 42.1%), but with a probability of winning (72%) which falls short of "lean Republican" status.
Democrats could breathe a lot easier if Harry Reid Sharon Angle rebounds against Nevada. Our estimate of the trend gives the angle of lead just big enough (49.1% to 46.1%) - a "coin toss" at the moment, but barely - when the final PPP survey published this morning shows angle of attack by a single percentage point (47% to 46%).
A Republican sweep of the three toss-up states would produce a tie 50-50 in the Senate would be broken by Vice President Joe Biden. To gain absolute control, the Republicans still need to pick up an extra seat tenth. The closest contest is in West Virginia and California and the final round of Election Polls show both Democratic leaning.
West Virginia, the latest PPP poll gives Democrat Joe Manchin an advantage of five points over Republican John Raes (51% to 46%), just one point better than the latest Rasmussen poll released this morning (50% to 46% ). Our estimate of the trend gives Manchin advantage just over three points (49.6% to 46.2%).
California is another potential target for the 51st Republican seat, but the last round of polling stations, including three new surveys released over the weekend, all show the Democrat leading Republican challenger Barbara Boxer by Carly Fiornia margins three to eight percentage points. Our estimate of the trend now a point ahead of Boxer four and a half (49.0% to 44.6%).
Voting in the contest between the Pennsylvania Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey has produced tighter margins in recent weeks but still led Toomey on all nine surveys released last week. Our estimate of the trend Toomey gives an advantage of more than three points (44.8% to 48.3%) - has as much chance of winning in Pennsylvania that Boxer in California.
The three-way Senate race in Alaska remains much to toss and by far the biggest wild card, given the difficult to measure in writing to the candidacy of incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski, albeit Murkowski or candidate Joe Miller's Republican caucus with the Republicans.
Four recent studies have shown Murkowski with son from 4 to 16 points, but a PPP poll released early this morning shows Miller leading by seven Our estimate of the trend at this time shows a virtual link between Murkowski and Miller (33.8 % to 33.3%) with Democrat Scott McAdams running about five points behind (27.9%)
Governors
Republicans are now ready to take a net 8 governorates of tomorrow, with one state (Rhode Island) leaning over a period of three independent states and still toss-up range. These include:
Florida, where our estimate of the trend now Republican Rick Scott narrowest of margins (44.5% to 44.1%) over Democrat Alex Sink, and the last ten Election Polls by nine different pollsters have been divided, with Scott to get the nominal edge six times and four sink.
Oregon, where our estimate of the trend gives Democrat John Kitzhaber a one-point advantage (46.7% to 45.6%) over Republican Chris Dudley, but the most recent SurveyUSA poll (including the sample and called both fixed and mobile), showed Kitzhaber leading by seven (48% to 41%)
Ohio, where our estimate of the trend now shows the margin for the Republican John Kasich on Democratic Governor Ted Strickland down to just two points (47.7% to 45.8%) after the last round of Election Polls show the race much narrower than those responding to a few weeks ago.
The following table shows our estimates of the current trend for the most competitive contests for governor. We will update all of our results throughout the day - stay tuned.
Election Polls, Note: Our model recently updated estimate of the trend assesses trends across all races, so whenever we add a new poll in any state, the probabilities and trend estimates for all races will change very slightly (usually no more than a tenth of a percent or two for the trend estimates).
Election Polls Video - Election Day Video